Foreign Office Advised Against Armed Intervention to Topple Robert Mugabe

Recently released documents show that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military intervention to remove the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Considerations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the files were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would cause significant losses and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no nation in Africa would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.